I said of the
original USADA statement in my blog of August 24:
“I personally
would like to know what was the basis for the USDA statement ‘Additionally,
scientific data showed Mr. Armstrong’s use of blood manipulation including EPO
or blood transfusions during Mr. Armstrong’s comeback to cycling in the 2009
Tour de France’ ”.
True to my
request the scientific evidence against Armstrong is clearly presented, though
somewhat buried in the report (only 6 of the 164 pages go into the tests). The
controversy of the 1999 Tour de France EPO test is discussed of course. It pains
an Englishman to admit that a Frenchman and Australian were right, but I think
this is pretty unequivocal now. The French journalist, L'Equipe's Damien Ressio, correctly identified six positive samples as
Armstrong’s [1] and the Australian blood doping expert, Michael Ashenden, got
the details of the story spot on in this interview [2].
Interestingly Armstrong’s
samples accounted for 46% of all the EPO positive samples found. It does look
like he was taking EPO throughout whilst others hoped their pre-tour red blood
cell increase would be enough to last the Tour.
The second piece
of evidence – and this is new – is the blood samples taken from Armstrong
during his comeback. Again an Australian – in this case Chris Gore – analysed
the data in detail. Endurance cycling, day after day, increases your plasma
volume and decreases your red blood cell concentration. This happened to Lance
Armstrong through the 2009 Giro. However, in the subsequent Tour de France, the
situation was different. His plasma volume rose, as expected, on days 1-7 of
the Tour, But rather miraculously this volume decreased over the next three
days and the red cell count increased. The only sensible conclusion is that he
had a blood transfusion on or around day 7.
Gore also
concluded that in many of Armstrong’s blood samples there was a dramatic
reduction in the number of young red blood cells. These young cells, called
reticulocytes, are formed when you are in the process of making new mature red
cells. If you transfuse blood to supermaximal levels, your body tells you to
stop making new cells. Therefore there is a large decrease in the number of
reticulocytes. Armstrong showed exactly this effect on a number of occasions. This
is the relevant quote from the report "Prof. Gore concluded that the
approximate likelihood of Armstrong’s seven suppressed reticulocyte values
during the 2009 and 2010 Tours de France occurring naturally was less than one
in a million”.
The final piece
in the analytical jigsaw comes from the 2001 Tour de Suisse. Here there are a
number of suspicious EPO samples attributed to Armstrong. UCI have not released
this data for further discussion. So this part of the story remains unfinished business
between USADA and UCI.
In short, I don’t
thing Armstrong’s supporter’s can realistically claim that he has not failed a
doping test. He may not have been officially sanctioned due to a test, but the
circumstantial evidence is far more damning than several people I note in my
book who have lost medals due to positive tests through no fault of their own e.g.
the Rumanian gymnast, Andreea Răducan.